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Future and conditional of probability

To date, and to my knowledge, these two concepts have not yet been developed here.

In Spanish, the future and conditional tenses are not only used to place an action in time. They can also express an assumption, a hypothesis, or a probability.

The idea is simple:

The future tense = I make an assumption from the present.
The conditional tense = I make an assumption from a point in the past.

Then, we need to ask whether the assumption refers to a simultaneous event or a previous one.

The simple future does not express a future action here.

It expresses a hypothesis about what is happening at the moment.

Present → I make an assumption about something happening now.

No responde al teléfono. Estará ocupado.
He does not answer the phone. He must be busy.

No llevo reloj. Serán las diez.
I do not have a watch. It must be ten o'clock.

You can often mentally replace it with:

• he/she must be...
• it is surely...
• probably...

We are still in the present.

But we are trying to explain an event that has already happened.

Present → I make an assumption about a past event.

La calle está mojada. Habrá llovido.
The street is wet. It must have rained.

Luis no ha llegado. Habrá perdido el tren.
Luis has not arrived. He must have missed the train.

The compound future very often corresponds in English to:

must have + past participle

This time, the narrator is describing a past scene.

At that moment, they make a hypothesis.

Past → I make an assumption about what is happening at that moment.

Pensábamos que serían las ocho.
We thought it must have been eight o'clock.

Al oír su acento, pensé que sería argentino.
Hearing his accent, I thought he must be Argentinian.

The simple conditional is the past form of the future of probability.

We are still telling a story in the past.

But the assumption concerns an event that happened even earlier.

Past → I make an assumption about a fact that had already happened.

Cuando llegamos, Juan ya no estaba. Habría salido.
When we arrived, Juan was no longer there. He must have left.

Cuando llegó la policía, los ladrones habrían escapado.
When the police arrived, the thieves must have escaped.

The compound conditional often corresponds in English to:

• must have...
• must already have...
• had probably...

When faced with a sentence, ask yourself two questions.

From now? → use the future.

From a moment in the past? → use the conditional.

A simultaneous situation? → use a simple tense.

Examples:

• estará
• sería

A completed event? → use a compound tense.

Examples:

• habrá llegado
• habría salido

You can remember this formula:

Present → Future

Past → Conditional

Then add:

Ongoing action → Simple tense

Already completed action → Compound tense

This gives the following table:

Select the correct answer from the drop-down menu!

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1. No veo a Laura por ninguna parte. A estas horas estaráhabrá llegadohabría estudiadoseríaI don't know en la biblioteca preparando el examen.

2. Cuando llegamos al restaurante, todas las mesas estaban ocupadas. Los primeros clientes habrían llegadollegaríanllegaránhabrán llegadoI don't know mucho antes que nosotros.

3. El suelo está completamente mojado. Habrá llovidohabría llovidolloveríalloveráI don't know toda la noche.

4. Como no contestaban al teléfono, pensamos que habrían estadohabrán estadoestaránestaríanI don't know de viaje.

5. Cuando abrió el cajón, el dinero ya no estaba. Alguien lo habrá cogidocogeríacogeráhabría cogidoI don't know.

6. Al verlo tan elegante, pensé que iráiríahabrá idohabría idoI don't know a una boda.

7. Pedro no está en su despacho. EstaríaHabrá estadoHabría estadoEstaráI don't know en la cafetería.

8. No llevo reloj, pero habrán sidohabrían sidoseránseríanI don't know casi las doce.

9. Cuando llegaste a su casa, ya no estaba el coche. SaldráHabrá salidoSaldríaHabría salidoI don't know.

10. No queda café. Los invitados se lo habrían bebidobeberíanhabrán bebidobeberánI don't know todo.

11. -¿Quién llama a la puerta a estas horas? -Seríahabría sidoSeráHabrá sidoI don't know el vecino; siempre olvida las llaves.

12. Encontraron la ventana rota. El ladrón entraríaentraráhabría entradohabrá entradoI don't know por allí.

13. Al regresar del viaje, vimos que las plantas estaban completamente secas. Nadie las regaríaregaráhabría regadohabrá regadoI don't know.